In 2011, few areas in the world are free of severe weather events. Floods, droughts, cyclones, the list is biblical. Lost in the reportage of extreme weather events and policy debates around climate change, are the human impacts. How do multiple cyclones affect rice growing in Vietnam? We can measure a reduction in crop yield; and document increased migration in response to that poor harvest. More urgent now, is how these realities are translated into adaptive strategies that build resilience at the local, national, and regional levels.
The international climate talks underway in Durban this week are characterized by universally low expectations for progress on emissions reductions. Despite the dire warnings of the UNFCCC recent report on global warning, developed and developing countries are unlikely to yield agreement on the emission reductions stipulated in the Kyoto Protocol and even less likely to engage key players like the US and China in adopting and advancing climate policies that will keep temperature rise to two degrees – the level of increase around which most nations and scientists have coalesced.
While clouds seem to gather daily on the otherwise sunny shores of Durban, a ray of light in the form of private sector interest and support for advancing carbon markets and investing in renewables may eclipse the policy stalemates that keep key negotiations deadlocked. China is leading the way on PVC solar production and using a combination of public and private investment to dominate the solar market. Amidst the EU’s economic crisis, Britain has forged ahead on its investment in carbon capture strategies. In the last week, the British Energy Secretary was quoted in the Guardian as saying; “…large scale deployment of clean carbon systems reduce uncertainty, drive down costs and will develop a UK supply chain….” His statement coincides with the launch of the Ferrybridge Plant, a public/private investment in an aggressive carbon capture initiative that is to become the centerpiece of the UK’s climate change policy. Sadly, the squelching of the Waxman-Markey Bill: together with the declining US economy and discordant congressional atmosphere in Washington, have all but wiped out concerns over the consequences of climate change from serious policy dialogue.
Lethargy on the part of US negotiators in Durban provides an easy scapegoat for Chinese representatives. As noted in the South China Morning Post; “China said a rift with industrial nations over the Kyoto Protocol's rules on greenhouse gas risked destroying the international response to global warming, raising the chance this year's talks in South Africa would fail....” According to the Guardian’s environmental correspondent, Fiona Harvey; “Europe is taking the toughest negotiating stand it has ever adopted on global warming…insisting stiff conditions must be met by China and other developing countries if a global treaty is to be arranged.”
The increasing politicization of multilateral climate treaties points to the need for creative solutions to urgent challenges posed by an unpredictable and shifting climate. One approach to solving local problems is to strengthen the ties between community-based adaption strategies and local government. In our next post, we’ll discuss some effective examples that we’ve seen on the ground.